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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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