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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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