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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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