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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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