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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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