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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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