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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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