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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 04 January 21
BLISS FOR SHIPOWNERS! DAMAGES MAY BE CLAIMED IN ADDITION TO DEMURRAGE FOR VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY DELAY - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a significant decision for the maritime sector, The Eternal Bliss[1], the English Commercial Court has resol ...
Sunday, 03 January 21
INDIA: COMMERCE MINISTRY LAUNCHES COAL IMPORT MONITORING SYSTEM - PTI
CIMS shall require importers to submit advance information in an online system for imports of items and obtain an automatic registration number by ...
Wednesday, 30 December 20
A LOOK BACK INTO 2020: THE HEADWINDS, THE TAILWINDS AND EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN - SIGNAL
There is no doubt that 2020 has been a turbulent year for commercial shipping. The coronavirus pandemic has shaken the global maritime transport. T ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.66 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 134.78 points Monday, up 0.66 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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