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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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