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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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