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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 January 21
ULTRAMAX YET ANOTHER POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE SECTOR, WHICH SAW INCREASED DEMAND ACROSS ALL BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market rocked and rolled these past few days. But by weeks end little had changed on the Capesize 5TC as it settled down ...
Monday, 25 January 21
NEW LAW IN CALIFORNIA, USA, AFFECTING SHIPOWNERS' LIABILITY FOR OIL POLLUTION - BIMCO
Members are advised that amendments to the so-called Lempert-Keene-Seastrand Oil Spill Prevention and Response Act of 1990 in the State of Californ ...
Monday, 25 January 21
COAL INDIA SAYS GEARED UP TO MEET SURGE IN FUEL DEMAND FROM POWER SECTOR - PTI
State-owned Coal India Ltd on Saturday said that it is well geared to meet any surge in demand for coal from the power sector.
The s ...
Sunday, 24 January 21
GOVT ASSURES COAL INDIA OF 'FULL SUPPORT', STRESSES ON LEARNING 'NEW THINGS' - PTI
Coal Minister Pralhad Joshi assured Coal India of full government support, even as he said the PSU needs to learn “new things” for impr ...
Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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