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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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