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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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