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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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