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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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