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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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