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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA KICKS AN OWN GOAL WITH AUSTRALIAN COAL - FORBES
China’s annoyance at Australia’s hardline stance on political interference and demands for an independent inquiry into the root cause o ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MINISTER - INDONESIA JAN-OCT COAL OUTPUT AT 459 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the January to October period was 459 million tonnes, the country’s energy minister told parliament on Monday.
& ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
INDIA: MORE STEPS NEEDED TO MAKE COMMERCIAL COAL MINING ATTRACTIVE TO GLOBAL PLAYERS - LIVEMINT
India concluded its first commercial coal mine auctions earlier this month. A total of 19 coal mines spread across Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odish ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.38 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 129.21 points Monday, up 0.38 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea. LPG is a clean, energy efficient and portable fuel that is being marketed at an afforda ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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