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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 20
SHIPPING OUTLOOK TURNS STABLE ON EBITDA GROWTH, IMPROVING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE - MOODY’S
Outlook revised to stable from negative.
The global shipping industry is on course to perform better overall than we had previously ex ...
Friday, 13 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Monday, 09 November 20
INDONESIA MAY CUT BIODIESEL USE TARGET AS SUBSIDY FUND DEPLETES - FITCH
The Indonesian government may rein in its push to increase use of biodiesel as it now comes at higher cost following a fall in crude oil prices and ...
Monday, 09 November 20
SOUTH AFRICA: COAL MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ' DETERIORATED MATERIALLY' - IEEFA
The Asian seaborne thermal coal pool is drying out
Resource Generation Ltd’s proposed but long delayed Boikarabelo coal mine i ...
Friday, 06 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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