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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 01 November 20
GRADUAL RECOVERY FOR INDONESIAN COAL FROM 4Q20; RISKS REMAIN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the credit metrics of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to improve from 4Q20 with the recovery in volumes and price ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
BIODIESEL - NEW FUELS, NEW CHALLENGES - GARD | DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
One of numerous possible ways to comply with the IMO’s strategy on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.94 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 28 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global strive towards eco-friendliness and environmental sustainability in the shipping industry is mounting. There are currently almost 200 co ...
Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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