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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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