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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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