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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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