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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 September 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA FIXING AROUND US$13,000 - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Over the last week the iron ore segment from Brazil to China has picked up, and we see freight rates up USD 2 (12%) week on week Fearnleys ...
Thursday, 24 September 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER TO BUY 1.92 MILLION TONS OF 4,300-4,700 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, has issued an International tender for 640,000 MT 4,300-4,700 kcal/kg NCV coal per year.
...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
VIETNAM'S NEW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN MUST OPTIMIZE RENEWABLES AND AVOID FOSSIL FUEL LOCK-IN: IEEFA
EVN’s financial constraints leaves the utility with little room for error
Implementing Vietnam’s soon-to-be-launched next Power De ...
Wednesday, 23 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Undoubtedly, this year (ongoing) will never be forgotten because in a matter of months it has managed to severely affect and shape our day to day p ...
Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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