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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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