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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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