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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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