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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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