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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 20
ASIAN COAL PRICES LIKELY TO REMAIN DEPRESSED SAY TRADERS, ANALYSTS - REUTERS
Asian coal prices, which have fallen around 25% this year as power demand slumped due to the coronavirus outbreak, are unlikely to move higher befo ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
WORLD COAL EXPORTS: INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HAVE COME UNDER PRESSURE AS THERMAL COAL PRICES WEAKEN - REPORT
Indonesia’s exports to decline sharply from record highs
Indonesia is the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, sellin ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
JAPAN'S COAL IMPORTS ARE BEING AFFECTED BY COMPETING INFLUENCES - REPORT
Japan is the world’s third largest thermal coal importer, importing an estimated 135 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019. The country&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 26 August 20
PENDING SOUTH KOREA LEGISLATION COULD FORCE HALT TO COUNTRY’S COAL PLANT EXPORT DEALS - KOREA ECONOMIC DAILY
South Korea’s parliament looks set to pass new legislation to ban financing on foreign coal power projects, putting all overseas coal-fired p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 20
INDIA'S IMPORTS FALL AS LOCKDOWNS IMPACT THE POWER AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS - REPORT
India is the world’s second largest thermal coal consumer and importer, importing an estimated 211 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019.&nb ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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