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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 29 August 20
COAL INDIA'S FUEL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS ABOUT 20% IN APR-JUL: PTI
State-owned Coal India”s fuel supply to the power sector registered a decline of 19.5 per cent to 126.30 million tonnes (MT) in the April-Jul ...
Saturday, 29 August 20
SOUTH KOREAN BROKERAGE FIRM KOREA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES TO STOP ALL COAL BUSINESS - KOREA HERALD
South Korean brokerage firm Korea Investment & Securities has decided to stop its investments in coal, in line with the Moon Jae-in administrat ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 985,000 TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR NOVEMBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 985,000 ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS SET REGION-WIDE RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL OF 23 PERCENT BY 2025 - ASEAN POST
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has set an ambitious target of securing 23 percent of its primary energy from renewable so ...
Thursday, 27 August 20
BANGLADESH POWER MINISTRY SEEKING AUTHORITY TO CANCEL 13,000 MW OF PROPOSED COAL-FIRED CAPACITY - BUSINESS STANDARD
In a bid to move away from dirty energy, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources is seeking the prime minister’s approval to conv ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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