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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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