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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 20
MISC MARKS ITS MAIDEN FORAY INTO MAJOR DEEP-WATER PROJECT IN LATIN AMERICA WITH MERO 3 FPSO
MISC Berhad (MISC) is pleased to announce its acceptance of Letter of Intent (LOI) from Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) for the provisi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS | INTERMODAL
Since the Covid-19 outbreak, governments and central banks around the globe have been using their ammunition and stimulus packages to keep their ec ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
INDIA SAW A SHARP DECLINE IN ENERGY COAL IMPORTS IN JANUARY - JUNE 2020; –27 PER CENT YOY - BHP
Energy coal prices were weak in the second half of financial year 2020, BHP says in its Economic and Commodity Outlook FY20.
Accordi ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
COAL PRICES TO REMAIN SUBDUED THIS FISCAL AMID WEAK DEMAND, HIGH INVENTORY - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Coal offtake is improving gradually as lockdown eases
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued to weak demand and high inventory l ...
Tuesday, 18 August 20
BLACKBALLED: WILL COAL BOUNCE BACK FROM SLUMP OR IS IT TERMINAL? - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Even by the standards of this miserable year, 2020 has been a shocker for the global coal industry.
As the lockdown kicked in demand ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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