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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 WILL DECREASE BY 29% FROM 2019 LEVELS TO 502 MMST - EIA
U.S. coal consumption, which dropped to its lowest point since April, totaled 95 MMst in the second quarter of 2020.
EIA expec ...
Tuesday, 11 August 20
BHP COAL ASSETS WORTH A BILLION LESS THAN JUST TWO YEARS AGO - IEEFA
Another global investor, the UK’s biggest public pension fund NEST, has withdrawn funds from BHP this week because the company is profiting & ...
Monday, 10 August 20
COAL IMPORT DROPS 43% IN JULY OWING TO HIGH STOCKPILE AT PITHEADS, PLANTS - PTI
“The market participants seem to have adopted a wait and watch approach and are currently looking for a direction. We do not expect to see an ...
Saturday, 08 August 20
GLOBAL COAL POWER PUZZLE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker has put another nail in the coffin for the coal-carrying fleet with its finding that ...
Friday, 07 August 20
PEABODY'S $1.42 BILLION WRITE-DOWN CONCEDES COAL MINES HAVE LITTLE VALUE AND DIM FUTURE - IEEFA
Trouble at biggest mine in Powder River Basin speaks volumes about state of industry
Peabody Energy, the world’s largest priva ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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