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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 04 August 20
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 900K MT OF MIN 5600 NCV COAL FOR 3 YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 260,000 to 300,000 Tons (MT) min. ...
Tuesday, 04 August 20
THE WORLD’S FLEET OF COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS HAS GOT SMALLER FOR THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD, WITH MORE CAPACITY RETIRED IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2020 THAN THE AMOUNT OPENED - IEA
This is according to the latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), which we completed last month and report f ...
Monday, 03 August 20
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION, WHICH HAS DECLINED SINCE ITS 2007 PEAK, FELL TO ITS LOWEST POINT IN APRIL 2020 - EIA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) most recent Monthly Energy Review, the United States consumed 6.5 quadrillion ...
Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Rati ...
Saturday, 01 August 20
SHIP SHAPE - OUCH: FIS
Thursday afternoon saw a report that US GDP in Q2 shrank by 32.9%. Now this may have beaten expectations, but it’s a bit like saying that you ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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