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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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