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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 August 20
EIA: COAL PLANTS UNECONOMICAL IN MOST REGIONS - IEEFA
U.S. coal power generation plunged by 30 percent in the first half of 2020 off an already-depressed base, shoved out by natural gas and renewables ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDIA SHOULD RECORD A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THERMAL COAL IMPORTS, REACHING A VOLUME OF 167 MILLION TONS BY THE END OF 2020 - ASSOCARBONI
Regarding 2020 thermal coal imports forecasts, Vietnam’s coal imports showed a very strong growth in the first half of 2020 and it is believe ...
Thursday, 13 August 20
INDONESIA REMAINS THE LARGEST EXPORTER OF COAL IN THE WORLD - ASSOCARBONI
According to the last Assocarboni data for 2019, Indonesia remains the largest exporter in the world. Thermal coal exports have in fact reached 456 ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
VIETNAM WAS THE PROTAGONIST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 - ASSOCARBONI
The latest Assocarboni data for 2019 also provide a detailed picture on the trend of the global coal import.
According to Assocarbon ...
Wednesday, 12 August 20
THE COAL MARKET IN ITALY - ASSOCARBONI
Italy, which in 2019 reported a decrease in thermal coal imports, with a volume of 7,5 million tons (-32% compared to 11 million tons in 2018), whi ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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