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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 01 August 20
ASIA HOPE FOR LONG-TERM OIL DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Oil demand in Asia Pacific might be expected to plunge 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) this year, but there are still strong prospects for growth over t ...
Friday, 31 July 20
SHORT-TERM IMPACT ON THE CHEMICAL SHIPPING MARKET IF THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE ESCALATES - DREWRY
Due to the India-China dispute, the threat of deteriorating trade relations between the two countries has become real. Meanwhile, we expect freight ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANAMAX: THE PERIOD MARKET REMAINS QUIET WITH FEW FIXTURES REPORTED - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
After weeks of dropping rates, there are finally some resistance for the Capes. Pacific rounds improving to upper15,000s by the middle ...
Friday, 31 July 20
PANDEMIC SENDING SOUTH AFRICAN COAL INDUSTRY TO EARLIER GRAVE - IEEFA
Could South Africa’s coal export industry, one of the largest in the world, be about to take a severe hit from the coronavirus?
...
Friday, 31 July 20
BOTSWANA PLANS MORE COAL-FIRED POWER AS AFRICAN SOLAR ACCELERATES - IEEFA
An African economic leader like Botswana should embrace solar to reduce subsidies and tariff hikes
As Sub-Saharan solar ambition has ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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