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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
Monday, 20 July 20
COAL INDIA LAUNCHES SPECIAL CATEGORY OF E-AUCTION FOR COAL IMPORTERS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) on Friday launched a special category of e-auction for importers of coal. This is in line with the government’s declaration ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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