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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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