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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
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