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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 29 July 20
2019 U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1978 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal production totaled 706 million short tons (MMst), a 7% decrease from the 756 MMst mined in 2018. Last year’s production wa ...
Wednesday, 29 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk sector is beginning to recover from reduced SnP activity recorded in the first quarter of 2020. The table below illustrates that appro ...
Tuesday, 28 July 20
DEUTSCHE BANK TO END GLOBAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES IN COAL MINING BY 2025 - REUTERS
Deutsche Bank, in a revamp of its policies for fossil fuels, said on Monday that it would end business activities worldwide related to coal mining ...
Monday, 27 July 20
IEEFA ENERGY FINANCE CONFERENCE 2020: COAL, LNG, PETROCHEMICAL SECTORS FACE POOR OUTLOOK AND UPHILL BATTLE FOR INVESTORS
Fossil fuel industries were becoming less financially attractive even before the global coronavirus pandemic
Three major fossil fuel ...
Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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