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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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