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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose for a 2nd month by 9.24% month on month. The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
PHILIPPINES COAL MORATORIUM HIGHLIGHTS DRAMATIC PIVOT TO RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT FOR LOWER PRICES AND POWER SYSTEM RESILIENCE - IEEFA
Policymakers and industry leaders ready to embrace new energy technologies
The Department of Energy’s call for a moratorium on ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
FOREIGN INVESTORS FACE TOUGH TIMES CLOSING VIETNAM’S REMAINING COAL POWER DEALS - IEEFA
Project bankability at risk as new regulations threaten usual contractual terms
Foreign investors will face higher-than-usual risks ...
Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared t ...
Monday, 02 November 20
PHILIPPINES GOVERNMENT SAYS NO TO NEW COAL PLANT PROPOSALS - IEEFA | 24 PILIPINAS
The Duterte administration will no longer accept proposals to construct new coal power plants, a dramatic shift in energy policy that counts on dec ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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