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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 November 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are moving towards the end of the year, the overall deal landscape of the dry bulk sector corresponding to the second half of 2020 (up to dat ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
COAL SQUEEZE INTENSIFIES - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The message from the top is clear: cut out coal. While the regulatory pressure has been evident for some time, the race to banish the black stuff s ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.35 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 128.72 points Monday, up 0.35 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 17 November 20
AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA SLUMP, BUT PRICES ARE MIXED - REUTERS
China’s unofficial ban on coal imports from Australia is starting to take its toll on volumes, with departing cargoes down sharply so far in ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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