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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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