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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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