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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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