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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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