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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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