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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
KOMIPO ISSUED A TENDER FOR TOTAL 1,560,000 METRIC TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for total 1,560,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for i ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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