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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed production to take advantage of elevated prices, indirectly initiating a price war with U.S. shale producers and in sequence, putting oil prices into a long bear market. The pandemic brought another shock to the energy complex sending Brent prices to the lowest level since late ‘90s with WTI turning negative. The shock shifted the forward curve into a contango structure benefitting traders and increasing demand for floating storage sharply with tankers enjoying an unprecedented freight rally in Q2 2020. Last year, however, the tide turned, with crude prices rising by more than 50%. The rally carries into 2022 leading to rising oil equities as well.
Now oil demand is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, according to several analysts, while others expect pre pandemic levels to be exceeded this year. However, prices could have more room to rise to tempt major oil producers to ramp up production. The rise in oil prices due to supply tightness has deepened the backwardated structure of the forward curve keeping crude tankers demand in check, as oil inventories draw down to serve demand, while floating storage is also likely to unwind further in this pricing context.
OPEC+ has failed to deliver the targeted quotas so far to fully restore output to pre pandemic levels, as West Africa nations struggle to ramp up production after years of underinvestment. In the meantime, oil exports from the world’s 2nd largest oil exporter, Russia, could be impacted negatively if talks with the US fail to de-escalate tensions near the Ukrainian borders, where Russian troops have amassed and sanctions are imposed by the West. Saudi Arabia, one of the only exporters with the ability to quickly expand output, could make up for missing quotas by its market allies. US oil producers would also benefit by increasing production and exports to Europe.
Even though the call on OPEC excl. Russia to boost supplies would increase, with Russia being an ally in OPEC+ this strategy would be difficult to implement without jeopardizing the alliance. Oil prices rallying sustainably above $90/bbl would eventually trigger demand destruction and cause the back end of the oil curve to rally and spot prices to drop. The OPEC+ meeting tomorrow might surprise the market, as the group could decide to release a higher production quota than the 400k barrels per day, according to Goldman Sachs view, highlighting that the combination of low inventories and spare capacity has been resolved by significant price rallies that in turn trigger a high supply response. The latter is what the tankers market needs to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos,
Tanker Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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